Three trends that may change the future
tinayu001
0 hongkong
china
In this context, we see three other trends that significantly affect the future of the chemical industry: sustainability, demographics and technology.
sustainability
The dramatic increase in the intensity of human economic activity has led to many worrying ecological developments, such as climate change, water scarcity, biodiversity loss and other challenges.
Let's focus on climate change: The planet is warming, and humanity's options are limited. One is to substantially reduce consumption in industrialised countries to achieve the maximum acceptable co2 emissions within the framework of preventing a 2°C temperature rise by 2050 (Chart 2). If this approach does not succeed, society will need to fully electrify its energy supply (and increase reliance on renewables or nuclear) -- which will likely require huge investments. Unfortunately, if humans do not succeed in curbing climate change, they will face consequences.
All three are challenges for the chemical industry. As an enabler of the physical world, it may need to cope with a related reduction in demand. The current debate over plastic recycling makes this point clear: the best way to reuse materials is not to use them in the first place. Any serious application of the circular economy could have a negative impact on overall demand growth for chemicals, depending on the exposure of each company's product portfolio. In addition, global electrification could raise energy prices (at least in some regions), making physical production more expensive and thus reducing demand.
To plan for the future, chemical companies need to develop answers to what these scenarios mean for their product value chains, from the availability and price of raw materials to the price positioning of production routes to changes in customer demand. Either way, regulation is likely to play an increasingly important role as we see the planet continue to warm and the number of catastrophic events increase. Parts of the statute may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. The trade association is likely to expand its role as a channel for chemical companies to express themselves to the government. Because the chemical industry is a significant direct emitter of CARBON dioxide, leading management teams have begun to incorporate carbon and broader environmental goals into their agendas. This is just the beginning -- pressure from different stakeholder groups will intensify.
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